Dynamics of multi-stage infections on networks

This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a nonexponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multistage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard closure, a number of important characteristics of disease dynamics are derived analytically, including the final size of an epidemic and a threshold for epidemic outbreaks, and it is shown how these quantities depend on disease characteristics, as well as the number of disease stages. Stochastic simulations of dynamics on networks are performed and compared to output of pairwise models for several realistic examples of infectious diseases to illustrate the role played by the number of stages in the disease dynamics. These results show that a higher number of disease stages results in faster epidemic outbreaks with a higher peak prevalence and a larger final size of the epidemic. The agreement between the pairwise and simulation models is excellent in the cases we consider

People of the British Isles: preliminary analysis of genotypes and surnames in a UK control population

There is a great deal of interest in fine scale population structure in the UK, both as a signature of historical immigration events and because of the effect population structure may have on disease association studies. Although population structure appears to have a minor impact on the current generation of genome-wide association studies, it is likely to play a significant part in the next generation of studies designed to search for rare variants. A powerful way of detecting such structure is to control and document carefully the provenance of the samples involved. Here we describe the collection of a cohort of rural UK samples (The People of the British Isles), aimed at providing a well-characterised UK control population that can be used as a resource by the research community as well as providing fine scale genetic information on the British population. So far, some 4,000 samples have been collected, the majority of which fit the criteria of coming from a rural area and having all four grandparents from approximately the same area. Analysis of the first 3,865 samples that have been geocoded indicates that 75% have a mean distance between grandparental places of birth of 37.3km, and that about 70% of grandparental places of birth can be classed as rural. Preliminary genotyping of 1,057 samples demonstrates the value of these samples for investigating fine scale population structure within the UK, and shows how this can be enhanced by the use of surnames

Genomic Characterization of the Guillain-Barre Syndrome-Associated Campylobacter jejuni ICDCCJ07001 Isolate

Campylobacter jejuni ICDCCJ07001 (HS:41, ST2993) was isolated from a Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) patient during a 36-case GBS outbreak triggered by C. jejuni infections in north China in 2007. Sequence analysis revealed that the ICDCCJ07001 genome consisted of 1,664,840 base pairs (bp) and one tetracycline resistance plasmid of 44,084 bp. The GC content was 59.29% and 1,579 and 37 CDSs were identified on the chromosome and plasmid, respectively. The ICDCCJ07001 genome was compared to C. jejuni subsp. jejuni strains 81-176, 81116, NCTC11168, RM1221 and C. jejuni subsp. doylei 269.97. The length and organization of ICDCCJ07001 was similar to that of NCTC11168, 81-176 and 81-116 except that CMLP1 had a reverse orientation in strain ICDCCJ07001. Comparative genomic analyses were also carried out between GBS-associated C. jejuni strains. Thirteen common genes were present in four GBS-associated strains and 9 genes mapped to the LOS cluster and the ICDCCJ07001_pTet (44 kb) plasmid was mosaic in structure. Thirty-seven predicted CDS in ICDCCJ07001_pTet were homologous to genes present in three virulence-associated plasmids in Campylobacter: 81-176_pTet, pCC31 and 81-176_pVir. Comparative analysis of virulence loci and virulence-associated genes indicated that the LOS biosynthesis loci of ICDCCJ07001 belonged to type A, previously reported to be associated with cases of GBS. The polysaccharide capsular biosynthesis (CPS) loci and the flagella modification (FM) loci of ICDCCJ07001 were similar to corresponding sequences of strain 260.94 of similar serotype as strain ICDCCJ07001. Other virulence-associated genes including cadF, peb1, jlpA, cdt and ciaB were conserved between the C. jejuni strains examined

Effect of heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on invasive pneumococcal disease in preterm born infants

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Evidence for protection of preterm born infants from invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) by 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccination (PCV7) is relatively sparse. Data from randomized trials is based on relatively small numbers of preterm born children.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We report data from active prospective surveillance of IPD in children in Germany. The cohorts of preterm born children in 2000 and 2007 and the respective whole birth cohorts are compared regarding occurrence of IPD.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>After introduction of PCV7 we observed a reduction in the rate of IPD in preterm born infants comparing the 2000 and 2007 birth cohort. The rate of IPD among the whole birth cohorts was reduced from 15.0 to 8.5 notifications per 100,000 (<it>P </it>< .001). The impact among the preterm birth cohort was comparable: A reduction in notification rate from 26.1 to 16.7 per 100,000 comparing the 2000 with the 2007 preterm birth cohort (<it>P </it>= .39). Preterm born infants with IPD were either unvaccinated or vaccinated delayed or incomplete.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This adds to evidence that PCV7 also protects preterm born infants effectively from IPD. Preterm born infants should receive pneumococcal vaccination according to their chronological age.</p

The effect of maternal common mental disorders on infant undernutrition in Butajira, Ethiopia: The P-MaMiE study

BACKGROUND: Although maternal common mental disorder (CMD) appears to be a risk factor for infant undernutrition in South Asian countries, the position in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is unclear METHODS: A population-based cohort of 1065 women, in the third trimester of pregnancy, was identified from the demographic surveillance site (DSS) in Butajira, to investigate the effect of maternal CMD on infant undernutrition in a predominantly rural Ethiopian population. Participants were interviewed at recruitment and at two months post-partum. Maternal CMD was measured using the locally validated Self-Reported Questionnaire (score of > or = six indicating high levels of CMD). Infant anthropometry was recorded at six and twelve months of age. RESULT: The prevalence of CMD was 12% during pregnancy and 5% at the two month postnatal time-point. In bivariate analysis antenatal CMD which had resolved after delivery predicted underweight at twelve months (OR = 1.71; 95% CI: 1.05, 2.50). There were no other statistically significant differences in the prevalence of underweight or stunted infants in mothers with high levels of CMD compared to those with low levels. The associations between CMD and infant nutritional status were not significant after adjusting for pre-specified potential confounders. CONCLUSION: Our negative finding adds to the inconsistent picture emerging from SSA. The association between CMD and infant undernutrition might be modified by study methodology as well as degree of shared parenting among family members, making it difficult to extrapolate across low- and middle-income countries

An in vitro study comparing a peripherally inserted central catheter to a conventional central venous catheter: no difference in static and dynamic pressure transmission

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Early goal directed therapy improves survival in patients with septic shock. Central venous pressure (CVP) monitoring is essential to guide adequate resuscitation. Use of peripherally inserted central catheters (PICC) is increasing, but little data exists comparing a PICC to a conventional CVP catheter. We studied the accuracy of a novel PICC to transmit static and dynamic pressures <it>in vitro</it>.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We designed a device to generate controlled pressures via a column of water allowing simultaneous measurements from a PICC and a standard triple lumen catheter. Digital transducers were used to obtain all pressure readings. Measurements of static pressures over a physiologic range were recorded using 5Fr and 6Fr dual lumen PICCs. Additionally, random repetitive pressure pulses were applied to the column of water to simulate physiologic intravascular pressure variations. The resultant PICC and control waveforms were recorded simultaneously.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Six-hundred thirty measurements were made using the 5 Fr and 6 Fr PICCs. The average bias determined by Bland-Altman plot was 0.043 mmHg for 5 Fr PICC and 0.023 mmHg for 6 Fr PICC with a difference range of 1.0 to -1.0. The correlation coefficient for both catheters was 1.0 (p-value < 0.001). Dynamic pressure waveforms plotted simultaneously between PICC and control revealed equal peaks and troughs.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p><it>In vitro</it>, no static or dynamic pressure differences were found between the PICC and a conventional CVP catheter. Clinical studies are required to assess whether the novel PICC has bedside equivalence to conventional catheters when measuring central venous pressures.</p

The effectiveness of interventions to change six health behaviours: a review of reviews

Background: Several World Health Organisation reports over recent years have highlighted the high incidence of chronic diseases such as diabetes, coronary heart disease and cancer. Contributory factors include unhealthy diets, alcohol and tobacco use and sedentary lifestyles. This paper reports the findings of a review of reviews of behavioural change interventions to reduce unhealthy behaviours or promote healthy behaviours. We included six different health-related behaviours in the review: healthy eating, physical exercise, smoking, alcohol misuse, sexual risk taking (in young people) and illicit drug use. We excluded reviews which focussed on pharmacological treatments or those which required intensive treatments (e. g. for drug or alcohol dependency). Methods: The Cochrane Library, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effectiveness (DARE) and several Ovid databases were searched for systematic reviews of interventions for the six behaviours (updated search 2008). Two reviewers applied the inclusion criteria, extracted data and assessed the quality of the reviews. The results were discussed in a narrative synthesis. Results: We included 103 reviews published between 1995 and 2008. The focus of interventions varied, but those targeting specific individuals were generally designed to change an existing behaviour (e. g. cigarette smoking, alcohol misuse), whilst those aimed at the general population or groups such as school children were designed to promote positive behaviours (e. g. healthy eating). Almost 50% (n = 48) of the reviews focussed on smoking (either prevention or cessation). Interventions that were most effective across a range of health behaviours included physician advice or individual counselling, and workplace- and school-based activities. Mass media campaigns and legislative interventions also showed small to moderate effects in changing health behaviours. Generally, the evidence related to short-term effects rather than sustained/longer-term impact and there was a relative lack of evidence on how best to address inequalities. Conclusions: Despite limitations of the review of reviews approach, it is encouraging that there are interventions that are effective in achieving behavioural change. Further emphasis in both primary studies and secondary analysis (e.g. systematic reviews) should be placed on assessing the differential effectiveness of interventions across different population subgroups to ensure that health inequalities are addressed.</p

A Simple Stochastic Model with Environmental Transmission Explains Multi-Year Periodicity in Outbreaks of Avian Flu

Avian influenza virus reveals persistent and recurrent outbreaks in North American wild waterfowl, and exhibits major outbreaks at 2–8 years intervals in duck populations. The standard susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) framework, which includes seasonal migration and reproduction, but lacks environmental transmission, is unable to reproduce the multi-periodic patterns of avian influenza epidemics. In this paper, we argue that a fully stochastic theory based on environmental transmission provides a simple, plausible explanation for the phenomenon of multi-year periodic outbreaks of avian flu. Our theory predicts complex fluctuations with a dominant period of 2 to 8 years which essentially depends on the intensity of environmental transmission. A wavelet analysis of the observed data supports this prediction. Furthermore, using master equations and van Kampen system-size expansion techniques, we provide an analytical expression for the spectrum of stochastic fluctuations, revealing how the outbreak period varies with the environmental transmission

Memory effects in annealed hybrid gold nanoparticles/block copolymer bilayers

We report on the use of the self-organization process of sputtered gold nanoparticles on a self-assembled block copolymer film deposited by horizontal precipitation Langmuir-Blodgett (HP-LB) method. The morphology and the phase-separation of a film of poly-n-butylacrylate-block-polyacrylic acid (PnBuA-b-PAA) were studied at the nanometric scale by using atomic force microscopy (AFM) and Time of Flight Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (TOF-SIMS). The templating capability of the PnBuA-b-PAA phase-separated film was studied by sputtering gold nanoparticles (NPs), forming a film of nanometric thickness. The effect of the polymer chain mobility onto the organization of gold nanoparticle layer was assessed by heating the obtained hybrid PnBuA-b-PAA/Au NPs bilayer at T >Tg. The nanoparticles' distribution onto the different copolymer domains was found strongly affected by the annealing treatment, showing a peculiar memory effect, which modifies the AFM phase response of the Au NPs layer onto the polar domains, without affecting their surfacial composition. The effect is discussed in terms of the peculiar morphological features induced by enhanced mobility of polymer chains on the Au NPs layer

Assessing mathematical problem solving using comparative judgement

There is an increasing demand from employers and universities for school leavers to be able to apply their mathematical knowledge to problem solving in varied and unfamiliar contexts. These aspects are however neglected in most examinations of mathematics and, consequentially, in classroom teaching. One barrier to the inclusion of mathematical problem solving in assessment is that the skills involved are difficult to define and assess objectively. We present two studies that test a method called comparative judgement (CJ) that might be well suited to assessing mathematical problem solving. CJ is an alternative to traditional scoring that is based on collective expert judgements of students’ work rather than item-by-item scoring schemes. In Study 1 we used CJ to assess traditional mathematics tests and found it performed validly and reliably. In Study 2 we used CJ to assess mathematical problem-solving tasks and again found it performed validly and reliably. We discuss the implications of the results for further research and the implications of CJ for the design of mathematical problem-solving tasks